RED FLAG IN RED FORT and A MILITARY COUP

RED FLAG IN RED FORT…    and A MILITARY COUP

MY-OUR-TIRANGA

                                                                 

                          So much has been written and discussed of late regarding Naxalites and Naxalism in print media as well as in other intellectual and literary circles both in and outside the country. It’s now a favorite Indian recipe for international news agencies and if the situation prevails, iam afraid, the day is not far away when the word ‘Naxalite’ would be discussed at par with PLO, IRA, KKK or even LTTE with much concern and fear. Though I may glance through it for the layman to understand the issue, this article is not intended to be one that discusses the evolutionary history of Naxalism or their influence on the peasantry mass of India’s total population. I will not discuss about the government’s hitherto approaches on the issue either, but it’s all about a hypothetical situation wherein the potential threat this rural guerilla terrorism spawn by their highly motivated agenda to topple the democratically elected government by an armed insurrection came to reality. One of my civilian friends recently asked me, “Will naxalites ever capture power in India or in that matter any parts of India?” Instead of telling him to wait for few more months before I complete my twenty years of service, it took not even a second for me to give him a firm ‘NO’ as the answer. I’am sure this question is being widely asked in the corridors, if not among the intellectuals but among the common man of our country of late. Reasons for such apprehensions are the recent successful attacks by Maoists on security forces and the major triumph for them in our neighboring country of Nepal and the subsequent political connotations there. More over the proclamation of Maoists as they are fully intended to overthrow the Indian state by 2050 through an armed rebellion (that’s what they believe) helped to intensify the delirium. It would take several pages for me to fully describe the subject matter which is not that I'am intended to do right now. Let us discuss precisely some facts before we come to the theme of Maoist’s dream of a red flag in red fort and its aftermath.

Nepal’s Nemesis. 

                             The impending political developments in our neighbouring country of Nepal, the world’s youngest republic, are being watched and scrutinised by the Indian security experts with concern and suspicion. Earlier there were hardly any grounds for apprehension that this small Himalayan Republic tucked between two giant Asian Countries with a small population of 27 million ruled by a Hindu Monarchy could pose any security threat to this mighty nation. It was only after the Communist party of Nepal (Maoist) signed a peace deal in 2006 and entered the mainstream politics does the India government’s security machineries started taking the matter seriously. The CPN-M, after a decade long civil war in which more than 13,000 people died in armed revolution, became the single largest party in Nepal after a surprise victory in an election held on April 2009. Their supreme leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, popularly known as Prachanda has been elected as the Prime minister of Nepal defeating his rival, Sher Deuba of Nepali Congress. But  events took a dramatic turn in the aftermath of a parliamentary crisis when Nepal’s Maoist Prime Minister Prachanda resigned after the President thwarted his move to sack the country's army chief. To correlate the influence of Maoist in Nepal and subsequent apprehension of similar events in India would make an interesting security analysis for the experts in the wake of heightened Maoists activities here.

An enemy within.

                             In his National Day speech in Delhi a couple of years ago, the Prime Minister of the country linked Naxalism with Terrorism and declared it as a menace to be dealt with determination and force since it facade to be a major threat to India’s internal security. Since its violent eruption in 1967, the flames now spread across 170 districts in the states of Orissa, Chattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka and West Bengal. The Naxalites have a force of approximately 20,000 cadres operating primarily in the lawless, dense forested areas of interior India (inland from coastline).

Naxalism arose from certain basic factors like social injustice, economic inequality and the failure of the system to redress the grievances of large sections of people who suffer. In the late 1960s and early 70s, the Naxalite movement was much popular in India thanks to some brilliant students, including from the famed IITs, joined the struggle for the rights of the tribals and landless labors.  Over the years, the movement is seen as having lost its vision and compromised its principles as intra party differences led to the disintegration of the movement.  Strong counter insurgency measures of the government doused the flame; but embers remained. Their resurgence in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar in the early eighties in a new form, gained momentum due to administrative paralysis; economic insolvency, exacerbating social tensions, and corruption in local police. It is obvious that, all these ingredients which continues to exist, perhaps in a more aggravated form, acts as manure for the growth of their ideology.

                             Let us understand that, during the initial years of freedom, Communist party of India remained indifferent to the national agenda, particularly during the war against China, by claiming that the freedom we achieved from the British was false. They even carried out an armed struggle by mobilizing peasants and workers in a bid to capture state power. It’s only after the intervention of Moscow that the communists in India came over to participate in democratic process. Almost two decades later, follow suit the path of the Chinese revolutionary Mao Zedong, few of the so called intellectuals joined together with students and peasants started an insurrection in Naxalbari, a north Bengal Village in 1967 and thus started the Naxalism. Even though they were cyclically active through 1970s and ‘80s, it was only in the ‘90s that they took the present form of a mighty menace whose hands now spreads across the hinterland of India.

 Their strategy still remains the unleashing of war against the government with support of local people by exposing the ineptitude of the administration in tackling their large number of issues ranging from new economic policies to SEZs to environmental protection to power shortages and Telangana. Successive governments have taken various measures from time to time to improve the living conditions of the tribal in rural areas including the implementation of land reform measures.

 

A Tribal Village


Since most of the government machinery to channelise the schemes of the departments has been  sabotaged by Maoists, they have failed to give exuberant results and thus the poverty still prevails in the far flung areas which lack basic infrastructural facilities. In this context naxalites have never been pro-people. They unleash attacks on the government officials sent for developmental purposes whereby kidnapping them and killing them brutally. This obviously hinders the developmental process which in turn has been dubiously used by the Maoists to their advantage by spreading propaganda that the government is not interested in resurrecting the poorer classes of the country.  By goading the illiterate, innocent tribal populace they let loose resurgent violence in rural areas and thus created unrest inside the nation.

                                 

Red flag in red fort

                            Will India encounter a situation like Nepal wherein these naxalites, by creating a network of “liberated zones”, plough ahead to capture the power at the centre or at least in certain parts of India in any near future?

                            The way, by which the armed Naxalites are attacking the isolated police establishments in their strongholds with sheer numbers, successful deterrent strategies to bring the civil administration to a standstill, memorandum of understanding between ISI and other extremists groups in the north east for procurement of arms and ammunitions, collecting levy from whatever sources available etc is enough for an ordinary Indian citizen to ponder over such consternation.

                              Naxalites still believe they have the ability to promulgate their ideology among the rural populace and thus motivate the vast peasantry to create a momentum for an urban uprising and by virtue of that could be able to topple the government and can come to power. Talking about their so called ideology it will be interesting to have a glance on certain facts.  As per the teachings of Marxism-Leninism or even Maoism, a political party is the leading force and there is great emphasis on ideology and in-doctrination. In Che-guevarist concept, it’s not the political party that plays the central role but the revolutionist or in other words- a guerilla. A guerilla must be a social reformer with a revolutionary concept operates with the support of the people clandestinely. Charu Mazumdar who had started the Naxalbari struggle declared in 1969, that their liberation army would liberate India by 1975. He died in a Calcutta police station in 1972. Several such leaders emerged and vanished in similar fashion. In India, Naxalites are, in one way or other mixing up the two as they are still confused, even after four decades of their existence, about the ideal approach which guarantee the success of their mission. Merciless killings of policemen and other innocent civilians who oppose their ideology is just an indication of this perplexity.  

                 All these factors contributed to a large extent in gradual intensification of Naxalism in India. Large population of rural poor frustrated with the corrupt politics and high level of social tension, paraded behind their so called “saviors”.  Naxalites credibly believe (still that confusion) that they could trade the power of “franchise of vote” into the power of administration. Sates like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar which account for about one-third of the total population of rural poor living below the poverty line, in the heartland of India could be a gleaming dream for Naxalites in their forward march to their destiny to south block. Confrontation between an elected government and the people ignored by them is not an unusual state of affair in certain places mentioned above. As usual the government, due to various reasons, could not pay much attention to find a solution to this conflict which leads to the intervention of the Naxalites who accomplished the tasks with much easy. Whether it is running schools, giving medical attention, helping the farmers in agricultural sector, taking classes on Mao’s ideology and thereby alluring the alienated class about a dazzling future, the Naxalites win over the heart of large mass of humanity by cutting across the barriers of caste and region. Ironically these poor class peasants do believe that, once the naxalites are eradicated, the rich and elite class will exploit the abundant mineral as well as natural resources of this area from them and they will literally be alienated from their own little space. All these factors which cultivate the rise of Naxalism in our country, may, in remote possibility, as they believe, lead to a countrywide revolution leading to overthrowing the democratic system and hoisting their red flag on Red Fort.

              Then will raise this question as to how they would be able to rule the largest democratic country of over eight hundred million population strength with as many diversity and religious convictions tagged to it. Naxalites talk only about the tribal and downtrodden. What about the rest of India? They flourish in rural India where  highly indigenous and impoverished tribal populations resides. They have never  been to the main stream politics  even in those areas. With their ideology of capturing power through the barrel of the gun, it’s obvious that the first few things they will do once into power are to do away with the constitution, banning the political parties, eradicate the democratic rights of citizens, mass executions or arrest of all the so called human rights activists or self proclaimed intellectuals who are now shedding ‘streams of tears’ for the naxalites and, and, and….the list will continue till the whole country falls into anarchy. Is it possible in India? I’am sure, many of you will have doubts about this. But the fact is that, numerous nations have their governments toppled by revolutionary war other than those with citizens involved in rejection of monarchies by fighting for democratic rights. I’am not talking here about French revolution, October revolution or Cuban revolution or in that matter few military coups took place elsewhere. But about those countries where democratically elected governments were toppled by armed revolutionaries with or without the support of mighty nations who pursue their own interests. Cambodia, Guatemala, Chile, Angola, Serbia etc are just to name a few where the elected governments were drastically restructured through negotiations with persuasive revolutionaries. Many were later on realize and solely appreciate that their ideology lacks the capacity to rule a country as a whole and accordingly corrective measures were taken time to time to make it more pro-people and pro-democratic. So by understanding that it’s not insurmountable, still we are comfortable as the situation in our country is far more complex than the countries  I’ve mentioned since we enjoy a system not even remotely similar to them.

                    In many armed revolutions, as we know, the belligerents generally avoids taking innocent human lives belongs to their own community but resorted to destruction of public infrastructures and other acts of sabotage.  More over their ideologies were also much different from naxalites. They were much intelligent in understanding the changing world order and always had the consent of the majority of inhabitants, not out of fear but out of sympathy. They all had that much important ‘political-ideological package’ which naxalites in India are lacking. Their constant denial to come to the negotiation table for finding a solution to the problem suffices this matter. They are now in a killing spree and at the same time not ashamed of calling themselves pro-people. They have now plummeted as a bunch of pretty criminals and psychopaths who takes pleasure in killing and looting by sheer gun power and living a lavish life inside the forest where womanizing and boozing is not at all a taboo. No matter how mighty a threat they are to the internal security of the country, they should understand that the only way to come to power is through ballet but not bullet. Their strategy of expanding their base by gradually capturing the power of a state or a district and then try to induce violent offensive against the nation with the support of likeminded  populace will remain as a dream. 

 

View from the other side (hypothetical).



Mass Protest March

                           However let us imagine for a moment a very hypothetical situation (near impossible) of a bizarre political condition in India by looking forward, say, fifty years from now. “The whole country will be reeling under the impact of high intensity corruption. The political leaders will be leading a life in ecstasy spending enormous money they accumulated by illegal deeds. The social and economic condition of the country will plummet to a level that the political involvement confines to a small fraction of the population.  The Police will go awry and will torture the people and exploit them or even kill them for petty bribes. Gangsters and hooligans of corrupt political leaders will dictate terms in the administration. Prices of commodities will skyrocket to the extent that even middle class would find it hard to eat even once. Judiciary will come to an apparent standstill with accumulation of petitions due to ineffective execution of their rulings by the law enforcement agencies. A great resentment among the masses against the elected government will destabilize the whole nation. Horrific riots will emanate in several places. People of all ages and demographics will start attacking police stations and destroy the public property. Arsonists will set fire to whatever they come across and loot the hapless shop owners and will gut down business centers. In several districts the low level policemen will become defunct or will remain complacent to all issues. Fearful of revenge attacks, many will join the protesters with their weapons after shedding their uniform.  Para military forces will be called to squelch the violence and will eventually results in indiscriminate firing to disperse the furious mobs. Several will be killed and dead bodies will lie everywhere on the streets. Agitators will regroup in thousands and march towards the security forces compelling them to withdraw and confine themselves in their stations to avoid colossal mayhem.    No authority will be available to call upon the military or in other words the army will decide to steer clear and remain neutral true to its tradition. Food, electricity and water supply will be disrupted as government employees join the protestors or opt to flee. Most countries will send their planes to shift their citizens out of the country. Top leaders of the country will escape in the evacuation flights and seek asylum elsewhere. All mobile phones and internet will be jammed. Only land phones will be working.  And at last looming over the country will be a total, intimidating anarchism.

               Then from nowhere they will come in open, naxalites with huge haul of weapons and explosives to support the raging mass overtly and one among them, a top politbureau member will emerge as sole leader who will remain at the helm of affairs for the rest of the upheaval. Zonal and local committee members will take charge of the states and the agitation will change its shape into an armed revolution. Vast population of poor, down trodden, peasant and working class of the country will throng the roads of Delhi in lakhs to pledge their support for leaders. All top political leaders and bureaucrats would have by then flood to other countries. Those who could not flee will be executed or captured. All state capitals will be put under siege by heavily armed belligerent revolutionaries. And at the end of all, the leader accompanied by several guns totting followers will march towards the Rashtrapathi Bhawan and will take the presidential oath of office to convert the world’s largest democracy to biggest dictatorship.

Why highly hypothetical 





Doctrine of AHIMSA



                 Why such a supposition will remain highly hypothetical and elusive? Traditional Indian society predominantly has a very high tolerance level. They never get easily carried away by propaganda.  We have a tradition and history of winning over armed revolutions by peaceful mass mobilization campaigns. India is a country with vast diversity and astonishing religious faiths and more than everything else a strong regional feverishness which they will never compromise or accept to do away with. An alternative offered by Mahatma Gandhi, his doctrine of “Ahimsa”(non-violence) to a society fraught with violence for almost a century pierce into the mind of a nation with such an astounding power, that no revolutionary ideology can shatter it, for centuries to come. Moreover our country has too many authoritarian regional centers which will hinder any such wind from spreading.   Hence, we must understand that the second largest human population in the world cannot be easily overturned or subverted through propaganda or revolutionary speeches.

    

                   At the time of independence, more than half of India was living in poverty. Today this figure is down to about quarter. One in every four poor person in the world is Indian, thanks to its second rank in the world’s population list. India’s dramatic progress against poverty over the past decade gives cause for optimism. If India can wisely generate the resources including its enormous man power and set it in right priority with active involvement of each and every section, I wonder why the nation could not eliminate poverty in the next ten to twenty years. If that happens, the so called Robin Hood-Naxalites will be searching for a place to hide. Whatever it may be, the nation definitely is in the path of progress. India is placed among a handful of future economic super powers. Considering the uncertainty surrounding the authoritarian regimes elsewhere, many choose to have greater faith in the future of a democratic India. Thanks to this spectacular economic growth, even the remote villages in the inlands are covered under the special economic packages announced from time to time. Under such circumstances, naxalites will definitely lose their ground as poverty; the father of all issues will no longer remain as their trump card. 

In the absence of a particular agenda for negotiation, apart from the problems well known and addressed to by the government, Naxalism is a crisis without a solution. A solution is possible only if there is a problem and vice versa. To me, though not in all aspects, this issue is like an elephant running amok as we do see occasionally in Kerala temple festivals. Hapless people, nowhere near in comparison to his awesome strength will ran for cover as the raging elephant would inflict maximum damage to whatever comes in his way until the elephant squad comes in and tranquilize him or in extreme cases shoots him down. But by then he would have done all the damages including human causalities. Only difference here is that the elephants are not malicious psychopaths and thus they never plan to kill anyone whereas as naxalites do exactly that and now a days ‘only that’ as they lost their ideologies long back. Here the hapless people are the impoverished tribal. It’s always better to tranquilize or kill the ‘elephant’ before more ‘human beings’ (I doubt about them) are crushed to death. Their cadres are now deteriorated to a state of believing only in murders, robberies and destruction. Marxism as a bunch of contradictions lost its original character and was rejected by even China and Russia. Efforts to apply outdated Marxism to the present world by the so called intellectuals among the Naxalites only brought struggle and strife to those affected by them. Hence, once again we must understand that the Maoist dream of capturing power is only a fantasy and will remain as it.

      Mighty power of Indian armed forces and its ever faithful stand towards democracy is another hard nut to crack as far as Naxalites are concerned. Once the democracy is lost and the sovereignty of the country is under threat, the military will take over for sure.

 







An Army Take Over

They will not condone the desecration of the constitution which they are sworn to defend, by few scheming individuals. Moreover any well trained, disciplined Army of any nation will not allow rebels to insinuate themselves into the military power structure.  In democracy several hindrances are deliberately put on the armed forces to ensure that they do not grow too big for their boots. Its traditional insularity, apolitical nature and subservience have made the forces an instrument to defend the country and its constitution. Any danger to it will, to my mind, lead to a Military coup which is 'technically' possible in India. In the event of a naxalite revolution, we will see an overwhelming military operation at all critical regional centers which will result in execution of revolutionary leaders and subsequent mopping up of supporters. 

Military Coup

A military emergency will be declared and curfew will be imposed throughout the nation. And mind you the common people will probably support the move as a better alternative. Within a couple of weeks, may be less, India will be under military rule. That will continue for few days or months before a new formula for restoration of democracy starts cropping up in the hinterland of India. And hence, last but not least we must understand that, in all sense Maoist dream of capturing power is a fantasy and will remain as it ever more.

Conclusion

                              It’s important for the government to treat the Naxal problem as a political problem as well. Political parties should join together, overlook their ideological differences, and fight against those who want to destroy the democratic structure of the country. Political leaders, instead of working from the urban comfort, should go to the rural areas where the common mass of this country resides. Welfare measures should reach there too. There are several places in India that are unexplored even in the revenue map of the district. In other words the Naxalites will not allow the government agencies to carry out any developmental activities in those areas so that the poor tribal populace will have no other option but to follow them. Political leaders along with the dedicated civil servants, with help of willing NGOs may start their civic action programmes right from the road heads and move gradually towards the uncharted inlands with the security cover of armed forces with a clear strategy in their hands and solid determination in their minds. Together we will fight this menace. "Jai-Hind"